NASCAR, Motorsport, USA Xfinity: NASCAR Xfinity Series Race at Dover Jul 19, 2025 Dover, Delaware, USA NASCAR Xfinity Series driver Connor Zilisch stands on pit road prior to the BetRivers 200 at Dover Motor Speedway. Dover Dover Motor Speedway Delaware USA, EDITORIAL USE ONLY PUBLICATIONxINxGERxSUIxAUTxONLY Copyright: xMatthewxO Harenx 20250719_cec_bm2_138
NASCAR is buzzing about Connor Zilisch’s remarkable rise through the ranks, particularly his dominant 2025 campaign driving the No. 88 for JR Motorsports in the Xfinity Series. The young talent has racked up nine victories in his last eight starts, including a recent win at Gateway, putting him on the cusp of a potential single-season record, just seven races remaining. This success has secured him the regular-season championship with a significant points lead heading into the playoffs. However, Zilisch’s transition to the full-time Cup Series with Trackhouse Racing in 2026 presents a considerably greater challenge.
He has already participated in three Cup Series races, culminating in an 11th-place finish at Atlanta. Moving from Xfinity cars to the Next Gen machine, combined with the demanding nature of oval racing, could prove exceptionally difficult. Dale Earnhardt Jr., Zilisch’s owner and former crew chief, offered a blunt assessment: “First year to sort of be rough.”
Jr. emphasized that Trackhouse Racing’s “hot and cold vibe” – characterized by bursts of exceptional performance followed by periods of inconsistency – could hinder Zilisch’s progress. The team’s strong showing at the Coca-Cola 600 contrasted sharply with quieter races elsewhere, potentially leading to mid-pack results as Zilisch adjusts to the car’s behavior. Drawing on Zilisch’s limited Cup experience, including a DNF at COTA due to a collision with teammate Daniel Suarez, Jr. stressed the need for patience. He referenced Noah Gragson’s struggle post-Xfinity dominance, resulting in just three top-five finishes in two full Cup seasons despite 13 Xfinity victories.
The core challenge for Zilisch lies in the substantial gap between Xfinity and Cup machinery. Jr. explained, “He’s learning an entirely new car, the short sidewall, the way this car feels, the way the car reacts and steps out, and all of those things will be very unique and different than what he’s experiencing in the Xfinity car.” Unlike the more forgiving Xfinity cars with taller sidewalls, the Next Gen Cup car demands precision amidst dirty air and tighter margins for error – a situation that could lead to rookie mistakes, such as wall contact on corner exits.
Jr. compared Zilisch’s situation to that of Chase Briscoe at Stewart-Haas Racing, where it took a full season to establish a “new notebook” – a comprehensive understanding of the car’s limits – without wrecking and winning his first race at Phoenix. However, Briscoe, also making a team switch in 2025, experienced early DNFs before finding consistency. Zilisch, lacking oval experience at the Cup level beyond brief superspeedway stints, could mirror this challenging start.
Despite these concerns, Jr. noted potential strengths, particularly on road courses, where Zilisch has already demonstrated success in Xfinity. He suggested, “Wouldn’t be surprised if Connor battles for a win in a road course. I think that’s not stepping out of bounds.” He cited Shane van Gisbergen’s (SVG) setup tweaks for the Next Gen car after his own year-one learning curve, noting SVG’s successful debut in the Cup Series in 2023. SVG, who now understands the car’s nuances, will provide Zilisch with a dialed-in machine, potentially leading to immediate speed at tracks like Sonoma, where Zilisch has already won in Xfinity.
Ultimately, Jr. cautioned against excessive optimism: “So, he’s got to build up this sort of data point or buildup… a new notebook internally about what the car’s capable of doing.” This echoes Briscoe’s experience, emphasizing the importance of avoiding toe-link breaks and bad-air mishaps. For Zilisch, a smart survival in the opener, like Daytona, could set a solid tone, but anticipate 20th-place runs potentially leading to unplanned pit stops.
Beyond Zilisch’s rookie challenges, Dale Jr. focused on Denny Hamlin as the driver best positioned for a championship breakthrough. Hamlin, 44 years old, has secured three Daytona 500 victories and 59 Cup wins over the past few seasons, but has consistently fallen short in the final races, such as his 2020 and 2021 title runs at Phoenix.
Jr. praised Hamlin’s evolution, stating, “Every year we say, ‘Man, this is his best shot.’ What Denny’s been able to do over the last handful of seasons to be one of the favorites, one of the contenders year after year after year. And literally every single year it seems like he’s even better.” This culminated in Hamlin’s recent Gateway victory, securing a Round of 12 spot despite JGR crew shake-ups. Jr. doubled down on Hamlin’s advantage, saying, “It really does feel like he’s in the best position he’s ever been in… Right now, I think we can say, maybe for the first time, that he’s the best car in the field at this point.”
Unlike aging peers, Hamlin’s work ethic, honed under Joe Gibbs’ guidance, maintains his sharpness against younger drivers. With the No. 11 Camry running smoothly, Jr. views this as Hamlin’s window to finally hoist the trophy before Phoenix.