NASCAR, Motorsport, USA Xfinity: NASCAR Xfinity Series Race at Dover Jul 19, 2025 Dover, Delaware, USA NASCAR Xfinity Series driver Connor Zilisch stands on pit road prior to the BetRivers 200 at Dover Motor Speedway. Dover Dover Motor Speedway Delaware USA, EDITORIAL USE ONLY PUBLICATIONxINxGERxSUIxAUTxONLY Copyright: xMatthewxO Harenx 20250719_cec_bm2_138
NASCAR is buzzing about Connor Zilisch’s rapid ascent through the ranks, particularly after his nine victories in the last eight Xfinity Series starts, including a dominant performance at Gateway last weekend. The young driver, piloting the No. 88 for JR Motorsports, is on the cusp of breaking Kyle Busch’s single-season record of 13 wins from 2010, with seven races remaining in the Xfinity season. However, Zilisch’s imminent jump to the full-time Cup Series in 2026 with Trackhouse Racing presents a significant challenge.
Dale Earnhardt Jr.’s candid assessment of Zilisch’s rookie Cup Series year offers a realistic perspective. During the latest episode of his “Dale Jr. Download” podcast, Junior delivered a six-word verdict: “first year to sort of be rough.”
Jr. pointed out Trackhouse’s “hot and cold vibe,” noting that the team’s car can be exceptionally fast—as seen in their strong Coca-Cola 600 showing—but then disappear for extended periods. This inconsistency could leave Zilisch struggling for position as he adapts to the Cup Series. Drawing parallels to Noah Gragson’s experience, where dominance in Xfinity failed to translate into consistent Cup success, Junior emphasized the patience required.
The core challenge lies in the considerable gap between Xfinity and Cup machinery. Junior explained that Zilisch is learning a completely new car, including the short sidewalls, the car’s handling characteristics, and the impact of dirty air. Unlike the more forgiving Xfinity cars, the Next Gen Cup car demands precision and can lead to mistakes, potentially resulting in contact with the wall, a common rookie pitfall.
Comparing Zilisch’s journey to that of Chase Briscoe’s initial season at Stewart-Haas Racing, where it took an entire year to build a “new notebook” of the car’s limits without wrecks or major errors, Junior highlights the learning curve. Briscoe, also making a team jump in 2025, initially experienced frequent DNFs before finding consistency. Zilisch, lacking oval experience at the Cup level beyond limited superspeedway outings, could mirror this process, particularly on tracks like Daytona and Atlanta.
Despite these challenges, Junior sees potential, especially on road courses. “Wouldn’t be surprised if Connor battles for a win in a road course. I think that’s not stepping out of bounds,” he noted, referencing Shane van Gisbergen’s setup adjustments for the Next Gen car after his own year-one learning curve. SVG, who debuted in the Cup in 2023 and now understands what the car needs to be better, will hand Zilisch a dialed-in machine—potentially fast from the jump at tracks like Sonoma, where Zilisch has already won in Xfinity.
However, Junior tempered optimism, asserting that Zilisch “has to build up this sort of data point or buildup… a new notebook internally about what the car’s capable of doing.”
Looking beyond Zilisch’s rookie year, Junior also analyzed the playoff picture. He identified Denny Hamlin as the driver best positioned to contend for the championship. At 44, Hamlin has secured three Daytona 500s and 59 Cup wins, but the elusive championship has slipped away in finals at Phoenix time and again. Junior praised Hamlin’s evolution, stating, “Every year we say, ‘Man, this is his best shot.’ What Denny’s been able to do over the last handful of seasons to be one of the favorites, one of the contenders year after year after year. And literally every single year it seems like he’s even better.” This build-up culminated in Hamlin’s recent Gateway win, his fifth of 2025, securing a Round of 12 spot despite Joe Gibbs Racing’s crew shake-ups. Junior doubled down on Hamlin’s edge, stating, “It really does feel like he’s in the best position he’s ever been in… Right now, I think we can say, maybe for the first time, that he’s the best car in the field at this point.”
Unlike peers fading with age, Hamlin’s work ethic, honed under Joe Gibbs’ guidance, keeps him sharp against youngsters. With the No. 11 Camry humming, Junior views this as Hamlin’s window to finally hoist the trophy before Phoenix.