Dale Earnhardt Jr.’s young prodigy, Connor Zilisch’s 2025 campaign in the Xfinity Series, has sparked significant buzz within the NASCAR garage. Driving the No. 88 for JR Motorsports, the young talent has demonstrated considerable prowess, culminating in a ninth win last weekend at Gateway in the Nu Way 200. This performance places him on the cusp of matching Kyle Busch’s single-season record of 13 victories from 2010, with seven races remaining. His dominance has secured his regular-season championship, carrying a substantial points lead into the playoffs. However, Zilisch’s transition to the full-time Cup Series in 2026 with Trackhouse Racing, alongside drivers like Shane van Gisbergen, presents a considerably different challenge.
He has already gained Cup Series experience, including an 11th-place finish at Atlanta. However, the shift from Xfinity cars to the Next Gen machine, coupled with the demands of oval racing, could prove demanding. NASCAR Cup Series analyst Dale Earnhardt Jr. offers his assessment.
Dale Earnhardt Jr.’s candid outlook on Zilisch’s impending rookie year in the Cup Series centers around the significant gap between Xfinity and Cup machinery. “First year to sort of be rough,” Junior stated. He noted Trackhouse’s “hot and cold vibe,” describing instances where the team’s No. 600 car is significantly faster than others, followed by periods of relative quiet. This inconsistency could result in Zilisch often finding himself in mid-pack as he adjusts. Drawing from Zilisch’s limited Cup exposure—including a DNF at COTA after tangling with Daniel Suarez—Junior emphasizes the need for patience. Noah Gragson’s struggles post-Xfinity dominance, despite 13 Xfinity wins, underscore this point, having managed just three top-fives in two full Cup seasons.
The core of Junior’s caution lies in the considerable difference between Xfinity and Cup car specifications. “He’s learning an entirely new car, the short sidewall, the way this car feels, the way the car reacts and steps out, and all of those things will be very unique and different than what he’s experiencing in the Xfinity car,” Junior explained. Unlike the more forgiving Xfinity cars with taller sidewalls, the Next Gen Cup car demands precision amidst dirty air and tighter margins for error—a common rookie pitfall.
Junior compared this transition to Chase Briscoe’s journey at Stewart-Haas Racing, where it took a whole first season to build “this sort of data point or buildup…a new notebook internally about what the car’s capable of doing” without causing wrecks or significant losses. Briscoe racked up DNFs early before clicking with top-10 runs; Zilisch, with zero oval experience at the Cup level beyond limited superspeedway tastes, could mirror that grind on tracks like Daytona and Atlanta.
Despite these concerns, Junior sees positive aspects, especially on road courses where Zilisch thrives. “Wouldn’t be surprised if Connor battles for a win in a road course. I think that’s not stepping out of bounds,” he noted, citing Shane van Gisbergen’s setup tweaks for the Next Gen car after his own year-one learning curve. SVG, who debuted in the Cup in 2023 and now understands what the car needs to be better, will hand Zilisch a dialed-in machine—potentially fast from the jump at tracks like Sonoma, where Zilisch has already won in Xfinity.
Yet Junior tempered optimism: “So, he’s got to build up this sort of data point or buildup…a new notebook internally about what the car’s capable of doing.” This echoes Briscoe’s story, where avoiding toe-link breaks and bad-air mishaps turned a rough start into consistency. For Zilisch, smart survival in an opener like Daytona could set a solid tone, but expect some 20th-place runs turning into unplanned pit stops.
As Dale Jr. unpacks these transitions, his insights extend beyond rookies to the veterans chasing glory in these playoffs.
Dale Jr. Sees Denny Hamlin Poised for Cup Breakthrough
Dale Earnhardt Jr. turned his podcast lens to the playoffs, zeroing in on Denny Hamlin as the driver best equipped for that long-sought championship. At 44, Hamlin has grabbed three Daytona 500s and 59 Cup wins, but the title has slipped away in finals at Phoenix time and again, like his 2020 title run in Phoenix, where he failed to lead a single lap and finished fourth, or 2021’s late-race fade at Martinsville when he was spun out by Alex Bowman.
Junior praised Hamlin’s evolution, stating, “Every year we say, ‘Man, this is his best shot.’ What Denny’s been able to do over the last handful of seasons to be one of the favorites, one of the contenders year after year after year. And literally every single year it seems like he’s even better.”
This build-up culminated in Hamlin’s recent Gateway win, his fifth of 2025, clinching a Round of 12 spot despite Joe Gibbs Racing’s crew shake-ups. Junior doubled down on Hamlin’s edge, saying, “It really does feel like he’s in the best position he’s ever been in… Right now, I think we can say, maybe for the first time, that he’s the best car in the field at this point.”
Unlike peers fading with age, Hamlin’s work ethic, honed under Joe Gibbs’ guidance, keeps him sharp against youngsters. With the No. 11 Camry humming, Junior views this as Hamlin’s window to finally hoist the trophy before Phoenix.