NASCAR’s buzz surrounding Connor Zilisch’s 2025 campaign in the Xfinity Series – driving the No. 88 for JR Motorsports – has been undeniable, particularly after his ninth win last weekend at Gateway in the Nu Way 200. With seven victories in his last eight starts, he’s on the cusp of Kyle Busch’s single-season record of 13 from 2010, and is already the regular-season champion. However, his upcoming jump to the full-time Cup Series with Trackhouse Racing in 2026, alongside Shane van Gisbergen, presents a significant challenge.
Dale Earnhardt Jr.’s candid outlook on Zilisch’s rookie year was delivered with a blunt six-word verdict: “first year to sort of be rough.” Junior highlighted Trackhouse’s “hot and cold vibe,” noting their dominance at the 600 and subsequent inconsistencies. This could leave Zilisch mid-pack frequently as he adjusts to the Next Gen car.
Drawing on Zilisch’s limited Cup exposure – including an 11th-place finish at Atlanta and a DNF at COTA after tangling with Daniel Suarez – Junior emphasized the patience needed, echoing Noah Gragson’s struggles post-Xfinity dominance. The vast gap between Xfinity and Cup machinery is key: the Next Gen car demands precision amid dirty air and tighter margins, potentially leading to rookie errors like slapping the wall on corner exits.
Comparing Zilisch’s journey to Chase Briscoe’s first season at Stewart-Haas Racing – where he “built a new notebook” through trial and error – Junior predicted a similar grind, particularly on oval tracks like Daytona and Atlanta. Despite this, Zilisch thrives on road courses, where he could contend for a win, especially if Shane van Gisbergen’s setup tweaks – honed after his own year-one learning curve – are applied.
“He’s got to build up this sort of data point or buildup… a new notebook internally about what the car’s capable of doing,” Junior stated, reiterating the need for adaptation.
Beyond Zilisch, Junior also assessed the Cup playoffs, identifying Denny Hamlin as the best positioned driver. Hamlin’s consistent performance over recent seasons, including his recent Gateway win, has earned him a Round of 12 spot, despite crew shake-ups at Joe Gibbs Racing. Hamlin’s work ethic, honed under Joe Gibbs’ guidance, keeps him sharp against younger rivals, and Junior believes this is Hamlin’s window to finally win the championship, likely at Phoenix.