Drew Allar entered the 2025 season with Heisman Trophy buzz and projections as a first-round pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. Instead, the Penn State quarterback’s senior campaign turned into a cautionary tale about the perils of betting on yourself and losing. Now, draft analyst Todd McShay is publicly saying what many in NFL circles have been whispering for weeks.
“Just like Drew Allar a year ago, unfortunately for Allar, he probably made the wrong decision and should have just left for the NFL draft,” McShay said while discussing other quarterbacks (Ty Simpson and Dante Moore) facing similar choices. “And maybe he’s a second-round pick a year ago, which would have been, no offense, a big mistake. But there were enough people in the scouting community, including one of the lists in the preseason that are contracted out by NFL teams, who had a first-round grade on him.”
“But we talked about it prior to the college football playoff last year. Hey, what if Allar plays great, right? [What if] he goes on, makes a run, and what if he’s like dealing? Could he? And then yeah, they won a game, but it wasn’t anything. And he winds up coming back to school, and all the other players came back, and the season didn’t go the way they wanted.”
The statistical evidence supporting McShay’s claim is damning. Drew Allar finished his truncated senior season with a 64.8% completion rate across just six games. But that number masks the deeper issues plaguing his game. His footwork remained sloppy throughout the year. And he showed zero growth from the mistakes that haunted him in 2024.
[Image: NCAA, College League, USA Football 2025: College Football Playoff Semifinal Capital One Orange Bowl Notre Dame vs Penn State JAN 09 January 09, 2025: Penn State quarterback Drew Allar 15 during pregame of NCAA football game action between the Notre Dame Fighting Irish and the Penn State Nittany Lions at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida. John Mersits/CSM/Sipa USA. Credit Image: John Mersits/Cal Media/Sipa USA NOxUSExINxGERMANY PUBLICATIONxINxALGxARGxAUTxBRNxBRAxCANxCHIxCHNxCOLxECUxEGYxGRExINDxIRIxIRQxISRxJORxKUWxLIBxLBAxMLTxMEXxMARxOMAxPERxQATxKSAxSUIxSYRxTUNxTURxUAExUKxVENxYEMxONLY Copyright: xCalxSportxMediax Editorial use only]
When Penn State needed him most against ranked competition, Drew Allar consistently wilted under pressure, throwing another double-overtime pick against Oregon in Week 5 that felt like a painful deja vu. Even his few bright spots couldn’t overcome the fundamental flaws that NFL scouts had hoped would disappear.
The injury that ended his season against Northwestern was just the final nail in the coffin for a campaign. Entering the season, he was legitimately in the conversation for a first-round pick. By October, those same scouts were trying to figure out if he belonged in the draft at all.
That’s a far cry from franchise savior, and it’s costing Drew Allar millions. Had he left after last season, he’d have cashed in on at least a second-round payday worth several million guaranteed. Instead, he gambled on improving his stock and lost spectacularly. It left him with a medical file full of concerns, game film full of red flags, and a draft projection that’s dropped multiple rounds.
A second-round lifeline in Indianapolis?
This is an unlikely scenario. But the silver lining for Drew Allar after watching his draft stock crater is that the Indianapolis Colts make almost too much sense as a Day 2 landing spot. The Colts are in quarterback purgatory right now. Anthony Richardson is still dealing with the aftermath of a freak orbital fracture injury that’s kept him sidelined since October. Daniel Jones is out for the season with a torn Achilles. They’ve made it clear that they do not trust Riley Leonard. And let’s not talk about Philip Rivers.
Indianapolis also doesn’t have the draft capital to chase a premium quarterback after trading away first-rounders for Sauce Gardner. This conveniently pushes them right into Allar’s new price range. The Colts run an RPO-heavy offensive scheme with play-action bootlegs that play directly into Allar’s strengths as a mobile pocket passer who thrives within structure.
He wouldn’t need to save the franchise on Day 1. He’d get time to develop behind Riley Leonard while learning an offense that actually fits what he does best.
The Penn State connection makes this even more intriguing from a developmental standpoint. Tyler Warren, Allar’s go-to tight end for years in Happy Valley, is already in Indianapolis. Warren had a monster rookie season, leading all tight ends in receiving yards through the first eight weeks. And that familiarity could be huge for a young quarterback trying to find his footing in the NFL. It’s not the glamorous first-round payday Allar was chasing when he decided to return to Penn State. But it beats the alternative of sliding even further into Day 3 territory.