Mexico is navigating a complex landscape of fuel theft, a controversial migration strategy, shifting aviation dynamics, legal challenges, and a surprising boost to its film industry. Here’s a breakdown of the key developments shaping the country’s future.
Fuel Theft and Pemex’s Billion-Dollar Losses
During Claudia Sheinbaum’s first year in office, Mexico’s state-oil company, Pemex, suffered a staggering $1.5 billion USD in fuel theft from its pipelines. More than 9,000 illegal taps were detected, with the central state of Hidalgo emerging as a major hotspot. The government acknowledges the mechanisms to combat this widespread theft – reinforcing pipelines and disrupting criminal organizations – but execution has been problematic, revealing a critical lack of state capacity.
“Self-Deportation” Scheme Gains Traction
The Trump administration’s “self-deportation” initiative – offering undocumented migrants $3,000 and a plane ticket to leave voluntarily – is gaining momentum. Approximately 15,000 of the roughly 145,000 Mexicans deported in 2025 have opted for this program, a figure that has nearly doubled compared to the first half of the year, primarily due to concerns surrounding interactions with Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE).
Aviation Market Consolidated with Airline Merger
The merger of Mexican low-cost carriers Volaris and VivaAerobus – poised to control approximately 69% of Mexico’s passenger air traffic – has raised competition concerns. The recent replacement of Mexico’s autonomous competition regulator with a new institution under the Department of the Economy adds further significance. If the merger is rejected, it would signal the new regulator’s commitment to antitrust policy.
Grupo Bimbo Files Suit Over U.S. Tariffs
Grupo Bimbo, the largest bread producer in Mexico and the U.S., has filed a lawsuit against the Trump administration alleging losses due to new tariffs, including the 25% levy on Mexico and Canada and the 145% tariff on Chinese imports. The Supreme Court’s stance on similar cases, particularly regarding Justice Amy Coney Barrett’s perspective, suggests a potential shift in favor of Bimbo. However, questions remain about potential compensation mechanisms.
Government Boosts Mexican Cinema Funding
Mexico’s government has significantly increased investment in its film industry with a 16% rise in a tax stimulus allowing private contributions to Mexican film projects to be deducted from tax bills. The reform also raises the maximum deductible contribution from $1.1 million USD to $1.4 million USD. This move follows a strong year for Mexican cinema, with domestic film revenues rising 15% and audience growth of 9.5% – despite a total box office revenue decrease of 4%, suggesting the government views film as a key economic stimulus.
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Fuente: https://www.mexicodecoded.com/p/fuel-theft-deportations-and-monopoly