Mexico is grappling with a complex set of challenges, from rampant fuel theft and a controversial deportation scheme to growing concerns over market consolidation and a surprising boost to the film industry. Here’s a breakdown of the key developments impacting the country’s future.
1. Pemex’s Billion-Dollar Leak Fuels State Capacity Concerns
During Claudia Sheinbaum’s first year in office, approximately $1.5 billion USD worth of fuel was stolen from Pemex’s pipeline network. Over 9,000 illegal taps were identified, with a significant concentration in Hidalgo, a state known as a hotspot for fuel theft. The government acknowledges understanding the mechanics of fuel theft and has implemented strategies including pipeline reinforcement and efforts to dismantle criminal organizations within Pemex. However, the issue’s persistent nature highlights a critical weakness: a lack of effective state capacity to enforce regulations and combat this illicit activity.
2. “Self-Deportation” Scheme Gains Momentum
The Trump administration’s initiative offering $3,000 and a plane ticket to undocumented migrants willing to voluntarily leave the U.S. has proven surprisingly effective. Approximately 15,000 Mexicans, representing roughly 1% of the 145,000 deported in 2025, opted to participate in this “self-deportation” scheme, with numbers nearly doubling during the second half of the year, driven primarily by apprehension regarding interactions with ICE.
3. Airline Merger Raises Competition Red Flags & a New Regulatory Force
The merger between Mexican low-cost carriers Volaris and VivaAerobus has triggered significant concern. The combined entity would control an estimated 69% of Mexico’s passenger air traffic, dramatically reshaping the country’s aviation market. Following a shift in regulatory oversight, Mexico replaced its autonomous competition regulator with a new institution operating under the Department of the Economy. Approval of the merger will serve as a critical test of the new institution’s commitment to antitrust policy.
4. Grupo Bimbo Files Suit Over U.S. Tariffs: A Constitutional Challenge
Grupo Bimbo, the world’s largest bread producer, has filed a lawsuit against the Trump administration over losses stemming from new tariffs, including the 25% levy on Mexico and Canada and the 145% tariff on Chinese imports. The company argues the tariffs are unconstitutional, and recent Supreme Court hearings suggest justices may be receptive. Even a potential victory for Bimbo raises substantial questions surrounding compensation mechanisms, as raised by SCOTUS Justice Amy Coney Barrett.
5. Government Boosts Film Funding: A Strategic Investment
Mexico’s government has dramatically increased funding for the film industry, boosting a tax stimulus that allows private contributions to Mexican film projects to be deducted from tax bills by 16%—the largest increase in a decade. The reform also raises the maximum deductible contribution from $1.1 million to $1.4 million USD, following a year of significant growth for Mexican cinema, with domestic film revenues rising 15% and audience numbers increasing 9.5% despite a 4% decrease in overall box office revenue. This move signals a strategic investment beyond simply cultural policy, reflecting a belief in film’s potential as an economic stimulus.
Fuente: https://www.mexicodecoded.com/p/fuel-theft-deportations-and-monopoly