NASCAR, Motorsport, USA Xfinity: NASCAR Xfinity Series Race at Dover Jul 19, 2025 Dover, Delaware, USA NASCAR Xfinity Series driver Connor Zilisch stands on pit road prior to the BetRivers 200 at Dover Motor Speedway. Dover Dover Motor Speedway Delaware USA, EDITORIAL USE ONLY PUBLICATIONxINxGERxSUIxAUTxONLY Copyright: xMatthewxO Harenx 20250719_cec_bm2_138
NASCAR is buzzing around Connor Zilisch’s breakout 2025 season in the Xfinity Series, particularly his nine victories, including the last one at Gateway. The young talent’s dominance has secured him the regular-season championship and a strong position for the playoffs, but his impending jump to the full-time Cup Series with Trackhouse Racing presents a significant challenge. NASCAR Cup Series veteran Dale Earnhardt Jr. offered a candid six-word assessment of Zilisch’s upcoming rookie year.
“First year to sort of be rough.”
Junior highlighted Trackhouse’s “hot and cold vibe,” noting their tendency to perform exceptionally well in certain races while struggling in others. This inconsistency, exemplified by their strong showing at the Coca-Cola 600 contrasted with quieter weeks elsewhere, could leave Zilisch battling mid-pack. Drawing from Zilisch’s limited Cup exposure, including his DNF at COTA and his experience with Daniel Suarez, Junior emphasized the need for patience, mirroring Noah Gragson’s struggles post-Xfinity dominance.
The core of Junior’s caution lies in the immense gap between Xfinity and Cup machinery. “He’s learning an entirely new car, the short sidewall, the way this car feels, the way the car reacts and steps out, and all of those things will be very unique and different than what he’s experiencing in the Xfinity car,” Junior explained. Unlike the more forgiving Xfinity cars with taller sidewalls, the Next Gen Cup car demands precision amidst dirty air and tighter margins for error; Zilisch might slap the wall on corner exit trailing traffic, a common rookie pitfall.
He compared Zilisch’s journey to that of Chase Briscoe’s at Stewart-Haas Racing, where it took a whole first season to build a “new notebook” on the car’s limits without wrecking out and winning his first race at Phoenix. However, Briscoe, jumping teams in 2025, racked up DNFs early before clicking with top-10 runs; Zilisch, with zero oval experience at the Cup level beyond brief superspeedway tastes, could mirror that grind on tracks like Daytona and Atlanta.
Despite these challenges, Junior sees bright spots, particularly on road courses where Zilisch thrives. “Wouldn’t be surprised if Connor battles for a win in a road course. I think that’s not stepping out of bounds,” he noted, crediting Shane van Gisbergen’s setup tweaks for the Next Gen car after his own year-one learning curve. SVG, who debuted in the Cup in 2023 and now understands what the car needs to be better, will hand Zilisch a dialed-in machine — potentially fast from the jump at tracks like Sonoma, where Zilisch has already won in Xfinity.
Yet Junior tempered optimism: “So, he’s got to build up this sort of data point or buildup… a new notebook internally about what the car’s capable of doing.” This echoes Briscoe’s story, where avoiding toe-link breaks and bad-air mishaps turned a rough start into consistency. For Zilisch, smart survival in an opener like Daytona could set a solid tone, but expect some 20th-place runs turning into unplanned pit stops.
Dale Jr. also offered insights into the playoffs, specifically identifying Denny Hamlin as the driver best equipped for a championship run. Hamlin’s evolution over the past few seasons has positioned him as a consistent contender, and his recent Gateway win solidified his position in the Round of 12.
This build-up culminated in Hamlin’s recent Gateway win, his fifth of 2025, clinching a Round of 12 spot despite Joe Gibbs Racing‘s crew shake-ups. Junior doubled down on Hamlin’s edge, saying, “It really does feel like he’s in the best position he’s ever been in… Right now, I think we can say, maybe for the first time, that he’s the best car in the field at this point.”
Unlike peers fading with age, Hamlin’s work ethic, honed under Joe Gibbs’ guidance, keeps him sharp against youngsters. With the No. 11 Camry humming, Junior views this as Hamlin’s window to finally hoist the trophy before Phoenix.