NASCAR’s buzz surrounding Dale Earnhardt Jr.’s young prodigy, Connor Zilisch’s, 2025 campaign driving the No. 88 for JR Motorsports, has been significant. After a blistering Xfinity Series season culminating in nine wins, including the Nu Way 200 victory at Gateway, Zilisch is on the cusp of a potential record, aiming to surpass Kyle Busch’s 13-race single-season wins mark from 2010. However, his jump to the full-time Cup Series with Trackhouse Racing in 2026, alongside Shane van Gisbergen, presents a formidable challenge.
Dale Earnhardt Jr.’s candid outlook on Zilisch’s impending rookie year was captured on the Dale Jr. Download podcast. He delivered a blunt six-word verdict: “first year to sort of be rough.” Junior highlighted Trackhouse’s “hot and cold vibe,” noting their dominance at the 600-mile races contrasted with inconsistent performances elsewhere. This inconsistency, combined with Zilisch’s limited Cup exposure – including a DNF at COTA and his experience with Daniel Suarez – could lead to mid-pack struggles as he adjusts to the Next Gen car.
The massive gap between Xfinity and Cup machinery is a key factor. “He’s learning an entirely new car, the short sidewall, the way this car feels, the way the car reacts and steps out, and all of those things will be very unique and different than what he’s experiencing in the Xfinity car,” Junior explained, drawing a parallel to Chase Briscoe’s initial struggles at Stewart-Haas Racing, where he needed a full season to build a “new notebook” on the car’s limits. Zilisch’s lack of oval experience beyond brief superspeedway tastes further amplifies the challenge, potentially mirroring Briscoe’s early difficulties at tracks like Daytona and Atlanta.
Despite the hurdles, Junior sees bright spots, particularly on road courses where Zilisch thrives. “Wouldn’t be surprised if Connor battles for a win in a road course. I think that’s not stepping out of bounds,” he noted, referencing Shane van Gisbergen’s setup tweaks for the Next Gen car after his own year-one learning curve. SVG, who debuted in the Cup in 2023 and now understands what the car needs to be better, will hand Zilisch a dialed-in machine – potentially fast from the jump at tracks like Sonoma, where Zilisch has already won in Xfinity.
Ultimately, Junior emphasized the need for Zilisch to “build up this sort of data point or buildup… a new notebook internally about what the car’s capable of doing.” This echoes Briscoe’s story, where avoiding toe-link breaks and bad-air mishaps turned a rough start into consistency. For Zilisch, smart survival in an opener like Daytona could set a solid tone, but expect some 20th-place runs turning into unplanned pit stops.
Meanwhile, Dale Jr. turned his podcast lens to the playoffs, zeroing in on Denny Hamlin as the driver best equipped for that long-sought championship. At 44, Hamlin has grabbed three Daytona 500s and 59 Cup wins, but the title has slipped away in finals at Phoenix time and again. Junior praised Hamlin’s evolution, stating, “Every year we say, ‘Man, this is his best shot.’ What Denny’s been able to do over the last handful of seasons to be one of the favorites, one of the contenders year after year after year. And literally every single year it seems like he’s even better.” Hamlin’s recent Gateway win, his fifth of 2025, clinched a Round of 12 spot despite JGR’s crew shake-ups, further solidifying Junior’s belief that Hamlin is “in the best position he’s ever been in… Right now, I think we can say, maybe for the first time, that he’s the best car in the field at this point.”