NASCAR veteran Dale Earnhardt Jr. has offered a blunt assessment of Connor Zilisch’s upcoming transition to the NASCAR Cup Series, predicting a challenging first year. Zilisch, driving the No. 88 for JR Motorsports in the Xfinity Series, has ignited excitement with his fiery performance, culminating in a ninth-place victory at Gateway last weekend. With seven wins in his last eight starts, he’s on the cusp of breaking Kyle Busch’s single-season record of 13 from 2010, carrying a significant points lead into the playoffs. However, Jr. believes Zilisch’s jump to the full-time Cup Series in 2026 with Trackhouse Racing presents a monumental challenge.
Dale Earnhardt Jr.’s candid outlook on Zilisch’s rookie challenges emerged on the Dale Jr. Download podcast. He delivered a straightforward six-word verdict: “first year to sort of be rough.” Jr. highlighted Trackhouse’s “hot and cold vibe,” noting their dominance at the 600-mile races contrasted with inconsistent performance throughout the season. This unpredictability, combined with the inherent difficulties of the Cup Series, could significantly impact Zilisch’s early results.
The disparity between Xfinity and Cup machinery is a key factor, according to Jr. “He’s learning an entirely new car, the short sidewall, the way this car feels, the way the car reacts and steps out, and all of those things will be very unique and different than what he’s experiencing in the Xfinity car,” he explained. Unlike the more forgiving Xfinity cars, the Next Gen Cup car demands precision amid dirty air and tighter margins for error – a factor that could lead to rookie mistakes, like wall contact on corner exits.
Drawing parallels with Chase Briscoe’s journey at Stewart-Haas Racing, Jr. emphasized the need for a “new notebook” – a process of understanding the car’s limits without wrecking. Briscoe, after racking up early DNFs in 2025, ultimately found consistency. However, Zilisch’s lack of oval experience at the Cup level – limited to brief superspeedway tastes – could mirror this grind, particularly on tracks like Daytona and Atlanta.
Despite the challenges, Jr. sees opportunities, particularly on road courses where Zilisch thrives. “Wouldn’t be surprised if Connor battles for a win in a road course. I think that’s not stepping out of bounds,” he noted, crediting Shane van Gisbergen’s setup tweaks for the Next Gen car.
Ultimately, Jr. advised patience and data collection: “So, he’s got to build up this sort of data point or buildup… a new notebook internally about what the car’s capable of doing.”
Beyond Zilisch’s transition, Jr. also spotlighted Denny Hamlin as the driver best positioned for a Cup championship. Hamlin’s consistent performance over recent seasons, coupled with his recent Gateway win, has solidified his position as a favorite. With a strong start to the playoffs, Jr. believes Hamlin’s window to finally win the championship is now.