NASCAR, Motorsport, USA Xfinity: NASCAR Xfinity Series Race at Dover Jul 19, 2025 Dover, Delaware, USA NASCAR Xfinity Series driver Connor Zilisch stands on pit road prior to the BetRivers 200 at Dover Motor Speedway. Dover Dover Motor Speedway Delaware USA, EDITORIAL USE ONLY PUBLICATIONxINxGERxSUIxAUTxONLY Copyright: xMatthewxO Harenx 20250719_cec_bm2_138
NASCAR is buzzing around the rapid rise of Connor Zilisch, the young prodigy driving the No. 88 for JR Motorsports in the Xfinity Series. Zilisch’s 2025 campaign has sparked considerable excitement, culminating in nine wins in his last eight starts, including a dominant victory last weekend at Gateway. This performance places him on the cusp of potentially breaking Kyle Busch’s single-season record of 13 wins from 2010, with only seven races remaining in the season. His dominance has secured him the regular-season championship and a significant points lead heading into the playoffs. However, Zilisch’s transition to the full-time Cup Series in 2026 with Trackhouse Racing, alongside drivers like Shane van Gisbergen, presents a whole new set of challenges.
Dale Earnhardt Jr.’s candid outlook on Zilisch’s impending rookie year in the Cup Series was shared during the latest episode of the Dale Jr. Download podcast. Zilisch’s assessment was delivered in a six-word verdict: “first year to sort of be rough.”
Junior pointed out that Trackhouse Racing’s “hot and cold vibe” plays a crucial role, stating, “They run the 600 fastest car there by far. And then disappear for a while.” This inconsistency, exemplified by their strong performance at the Coca-Cola 600 contrasted with quieter weeks elsewhere, could leave Zilisch battling mid-pack positions as he adapts. Drawing from Zilisch’s limited Cup exposure, including his DNF at COTA after tangling with teammate Daniel Suarez, Junior emphasized the patience required. He referenced Noah Gragson’s struggles post-Xfinity dominance, where he managed just three top-fives in two full Cup seasons despite 13 Xfinity wins.
The core of Junior’s caution lies in the significant gap between Xfinity and Cup machinery. “He’s learning an entirely new car, the short sidewall, the way this car feels, the way the car reacts and steps out, and all of those things will be very unique and different than what he’s experiencing in the Xfinity car,” Junior explained. Unlike the more forgiving Xfinity cars with taller sidewalls, the Next Gen Cup car demands precision amidst dirty air and tighter margins for error; a common rookie pitfall could involve Zilisch slapping the wall on corner exit trailing traffic.
He compared it to Chase Briscoe’s journey at Stewart-Haas Racing, where it took a whole first season to build “a new notebook” on the car’s limits without wrecking out and winning his first race at Phoenix. Yet, Briscoe, jumping teams in 2025, racked up DNFs early before clicking with top-10 runs; Zilisch, with zero oval experience at the Cup level beyond brief superspeedway tastes, could mirror that grind on tracks like Daytona and Atlanta.
Still, Junior sees bright spots, particularly on road courses where Zilisch thrives. “Wouldn’t be surprised if Connor battles for a win in a road course. I think that’s not stepping out of bounds,” he noted, crediting Shane van Gisbergen’s setup tweaks for the Next Gen car after his own year-one learning curve. SVG, who debuted in the Cup in 2023 and now understands what the car needs to be better, will hand Zilisch a dialed-in machine – potentially fast from the jump at tracks like Sonoma, where Zilisch has already won in Xfinity.
Yet Junior tempered optimism: “So, he’s got to build up this sort of data point or buildup… a new notebook internally about what the car’s capable of doing.” This echoes Briscoe’s story, where avoiding toe-link breaks and bad-air mishaps turned a rough start into consistency. For Zilisch, smart survival in an opener like Daytona could set a solid tone, but expect some 20th-place runs turning into unplanned pit stops.
Dale Jr. also analyzed the playoffs, specifically identifying Denny Hamlin as the driver best equipped for a championship run. Hamlin’s evolution over the past several seasons has made him a consistent contender, and his recent Gateway win secured a Round of 12 spot despite JGR crew shake-ups. Junior doubled down on Hamlin’s edge, stating, “It really does feel like he’s in the best position he’s ever been in… Right now, I think we can say, maybe for the first time, that he’s the best car in the field at this point.”
Unlike peers fading with age, Hamlin’s work ethic, honed under Joe Gibbs’ guidance, keeps him sharp against youngsters. With the No. 11 Camry humming, Junior views this as Hamlin’s window to finally hoist the trophy before Phoenix.