NASCAR, Motorsport, USA Xfinity: NASCAR Xfinity Series Race at Dover Jul 19, 2025 Dover, Delaware, USA NASCAR Xfinity Series driver Connor Zilisch stands on pit road prior to the BetRivers 200 at Dover Motor Speedway. Dover Dover Motor Speedway Delaware USA, EDITORIAL USE ONLY PUBLICATIONxINxGERxSUIxAUTxONLY Copyright: xMatthewxO Harenx 20250719_cec_bm2_138
NASCAR’s biggest star, Dale Earnhardt Jr., has offered a blunt assessment of Connor Zilisch’s impending transition to the NASCAR Cup Series. Speaking on the Dale Jr. Download podcast, the former champion issued a stark six-word prediction: “first year to sort of be rough.”
Zilisch’s remarkable 2025 season with JR Motorsports in the Xfinity Series – nine wins in his last eight races – has propelled him to the brink of becoming the regular-season champion, potentially setting up a strong playoff run. However, the jump to the Cup Series, coupled with the inherent challenges of the Next Gen car and the unforgiving nature of ovals, presents a significant hurdle.
“first year to sort of be rough,” Earnhardt stated, emphasizing the steep learning curve anticipated for the young talent. He noted that Trackhouse Racing’s “hot and cold vibe,” characterized by periods of dominant performance followed by inconsistency, could lead to Zilisch struggling for consistency.
The substantial difference between Xfinity and Cup machinery – particularly the shorter sidewalls of the Cup car and the impact of dirty air – will undoubtedly test Zilisch. Earnhardt compared Zilisch’s journey to that of Chase Briscoe’s initial season at Stewart-Haas Racing, where the rookie spent the year building a “new notebook” understanding the car’s limits.
“He’s learning an entirely new car, the short sidewall, the way this car feels, the way the car reacts and steps out, and all of those things will be very unique and different than what he’s experiencing in the Xfinity car,” Earnhardt explained.
While recognizing potential bright spots, particularly on road courses where Zilisch has already excelled, Earnhardt stressed the need for patience and data collection. “He’s got to build up this sort of data point or buildup… a new notebook internally about what the car’s capable of doing.”
Furthermore, Earnhardt highlighted the potential for Zilisch to mirror the experiences of Briscoe, who initially faced DNFs and inconsistent runs before finding success at tracks like Phoenix. The veteran driver cautioned against expecting immediate dominance.
Looking beyond Zilisch’s individual challenges, Earnhardt also offered a positive assessment of Denny Hamlin as a championship contender. Hamlin’s consistent performance over recent seasons, culminating in a Round of 12 berth after his Gateway victory, has earned him Earnhardt’s respect. “Every year we say, ‘Man, this is his best shot.’ What Denny’s been able to do over the last handful of seasons to be one of the favorites, one of the contenders year after year after year. And literally every single year it seems like he’s even better.”
Ultimately, Earnhardt believes Hamlin is currently in the best position he’s ever been in to win a Cup championship, particularly before the final race at Phoenix.