NASCAR’s buzz surrounding Dale Earnhardt Jr.’s young prodigy, Connor Zilisch’s, 2025 campaign in the Xfinity Series, has been immense. Driving the No. 88 for JR Motorsports, Zilisch has ignited a fire, securing nine victories in his last eight starts, including a remarkable ninth at Gateway in the Nu Way 200. With seven races remaining, he’s on the cusp of potentially shattering Kyle Busch’s single-season record of 13 wins from 2010, and currently holds a significant points lead as the regular-season champion. However, Zilisch’s Xfinity success is one thing; his leap to the full-time Cup Series in 2026 with Trackhouse Racing, alongside talents like Shane van Gisbergen, presents a completely new challenge.
He’s already dipped his toes in Cup waters, racking up three starts, including an 11th-place finish at Atlanta. Yet, the transition from Xfinity to the Next Gen machine, coupled with the brutal ovals, could pose an unprecedented test. Dale Earnhardt Jr. offers a candid assessment of these challenges.
On the latest episode of the Dale Jr. Download podcast, Junior delivered a blunt six-word verdict on Zilisch’s impending rookie year: “first year to sort of be rough.” He highlighted Trackhouse’s “hot and cold vibe,” noting their dominance at the 600-mile races contrasted with periods of inconsistency. This could leave Zilisch struggling for position as he adjusts to the complexities of the Cup Series. Drawing parallels with Connor Zilisch’s limited Cup experience, like his DNF at COTA after a tangle with teammate Daniel Suarez, Junior emphasizes the patience required.
The core difference between Xfinity and Cup machinery is stark. Junior explains, “He’s learning an entirely new car, the short sidewall, the way this car feels, the way the car reacts and steps out, and all of those things will be very unique and different than what he’s experiencing in the Xfinity car.” Unlike the more forgiving Xfinity cars with taller sidewalls, the Next Gen Cup car demands precision amidst dirty air and tighter margins for error – a common rookie pitfall.
This comparison mirrors Chase Briscoe’s journey at Stewart-Haas Racing, where it took a full season to establish a “new notebook” on the car’s limits before securing his first victory at Phoenix. However, Briscoe’s early struggles – multiple DNFs – demonstrate the potential for a difficult start. Zilisch, with limited oval experience at the Cup level, could mirror that experience, particularly on tracks like Daytona and Atlanta.
Despite these challenges, Junior identifies bright spots, particularly on road courses where Zilisch thrives. “Wouldn’t be surprised if Connor battles for a win in a road course. I think that’s not stepping out of bounds,” he notes, acknowledging Shane van Gisbergen’s setup tweaks for the Next Gen car following his own year-one learning curve. SVG, who debuted in the Cup in 2023 and now understands the car’s needs, will hand Zilisch a dialed-in machine – potentially fast from the jump at tracks like Sonoma, where Zilisch has already won in Xfinity.
However, Junior tempers optimism, stating, “So, he’s got to build up this sort of data point or buildup… a new notebook internally about what the car’s capable of doing.” This echoes Briscoe’s story, where avoiding toe-link breaks and bad-air mishaps turned a rough start into consistency. For Zilisch, smart survival in an opener like Daytona could set a solid tone, but expect some 20th-place runs turning into unplanned pit stops.
Dale Jr.’s insights extend beyond rookies to the veterans chasing glory in these playoffs.
Dale Earnhardt Jr. turned his podcast lens to the playoffs, zeroing in on Denny Hamlin as the driver best equipped for that long-sought championship. At 44, Hamlin has grabbed three Daytona 500s and 59 Cup wins, but the title has slipped away in finals at Phoenix time and again, like his 2020 title run in Phoenix, where he failed to lead a single lap and finished fourth, or 2021’s late-race fade at Martinsville when he was spun out by Alex Bowman.
Junior praised Hamlin’s evolution, stating, “Every year we say, ‘Man, this is his best shot.’ What Denny’s been able to do over the last handful of seasons to be one of the favorites, one of the contenders year after year after year. And literally every single year it seems like he’s even better.”
This build-up culminated in Hamlin’s recent Gateway win, his fifth of 2025, clinching a Round of 12 spot despite Joe Gibbs Racing’s crew shake-ups. Junior doubled down on Hamlin’s edge, saying, “It really does feel like he’s in the best position he’s ever been in… Right now, I think we can say, maybe for the first time, that he’s the best car in the field at this point.”
Unlike peers fading with age, Hamlin’s work ethic, honed under Joe Gibbs’ guidance, keeps him sharp against youngsters. With the No. 11 Camry humming, Junior views this as Hamlin’s window to finally hoist the trophy before Phoenix.
