The Indiana Fever’s Sunday loss to the Golden State Valkyries was a masterclass in what not to do in the first quarter. Three-point shooters kept disappearing, and the offense couldn’t patch the holes fast enough. The Valkyries walked away with a 75-63 win, leaving Indiana at 21-19 and a bit bruised. Then came the Atlanta vs Sun showdown, and the Dream’s 93-76 win over the Connecticut Sun didn’t just boost their record to 26-14. It mathematically elbowed the Fever out of any chance to catch them. Finishing fourth or fifth? The odds really aren’t in Indiana’s favor.
Still and all, the Fever is very much alive and alive they will stay. With four games left, the Fever control their own destiny. Two of those are against teams already shipping out for the offseason (Washington and Chicago), and the final test is top-seeded Minnesota, who might be cruising more than competing. ESPN’s WNBA Basketball Power Index 2025 assigns each team odds for making the playoffs and advancing through each round. After beating the Seattle Storm on August 26, the Fever were pegged with a 96.2% chance to reach the playoffs, 34.2% to make the second round, 14.1% to reach the Finals, and a 3.1% shot at the championship.
Fast forward to now, and the numbers have nudged in their favor. Even after Sunday’s loss to the Valkyries. The Fever’s playoff odds are up to 97.4%, though their chances of advancing beyond the first round sit at 32.5%, Finals at 12.5%, and winning it all at 2.4%. That’s exactly what WNBA analyst Robin Lundberg recently highlighted, giving the Indiana Fever a green light for the playoffs. According to Lundberg, that one-point win over the Sparks sealed their playoff fates. “I’ll look at the people who keep wondering if they’re going to make the playoffs or not. They’re going to make the playoffs. That’s really not up for debate. The ESPN Power Index ranked the Fever. They’re now down to a 97.4 percent chance to make the playoffs after last night. So, [there is] a 97 percent chance the Fever make the playoffs.”
The top four spots are already locked, and New York (99.9) and Seattle (98.6) all but claiming the other two. Golden State (97.7), Los Angeles (6.4), and Indiana (97.4) are the final three contenders remaining. According to Tankathon, which keeps tabs on the “how hard is this schedule?” meter, the Fever have lucked into the easiest path among teams sitting 6-9 in the standings. Seattle still has to face Golden State and Los Angeles, so at least one of those games has to go sideways for someone. The bottomline being that Indiana probably just needs one more win to lock in a postseason spot. However, they would be wise to try for a couple more.
“It’s not about the playoff spot itself as much as it is the playoff seating,” Lundberg further warned Stephanie White and Co. And yes, Fever would need to win multiple to avoid the eighth-seed fate they are currently facing. The reason? The top-seeded Minnesota Lynx will be waiting for them in the very first round. “The Fever faces a lot of questions. Where are they going to fall in the playoff standings? Because they’re unlikely to fall out, but where do they fall? You don’t want to be in that eighth spot, which they currently occupy, because that means a date with the Minnesota Lynx, which means the season probably goes bye-bye.”
And then there’s also the continued question about Caitlin Clark’s potential return status. Stephanie White had said she needed to see her in practice in order to clear her for a return. We’ve seen her in shootaround, but we don’t know if she’s practiced, and nobody’s asked. So that question remains unanswered, and they’re running out of runway to ramp Caitlin Clark up,” Lundberg said, focusing on how the Fever’s potential is drastically different depending on whether Clark is on the court.
Lundberg emphasized that, despite the rollercoaster of a season they’ve endured, the team’s ultimate trajectory remains uncertain, and it’s still too early to know exactly how things will unfold. But this uncertainty is a growing cause of discontent among the Indiana fans. And they have found their scapegoat in Stephanie White.
Analyst sets the record straight on White as Caitlin Clark remains out
When Stephanie White started her second stint with Fever, it was all sunshine and rainbows. The team was performing well, the new additions merged well, and the playoffs looked like a surefire thing. But since the injury bug bit Indiana, White won’t be calling it a warm homecoming anymore. Her strategies are being doubted, the way of handling Clark’s injury is being questioned, and the team is adding new players every week to replace old ones.
Amidst all this chaos, Lundberg has given White her flowers, claiming the Fever have a better record this year than they did last year. “The Fever has a better record this year than they did last year. And that’s with Caitlin Clark missing essentially the entire season… They are still top six in the league in net rating. They’re seventh in defense and fourth in offense… Reality defends the coach of the Fever,” he said.
While doubts are there concerning the Fever’s head coach, the fact that the team has not dropped out of playoff berths despite losing four key players speaks volumes in her favor.
