Few seasons in the Xfinity Series have sparked as much buzz in the NASCAR garage as Dale Earnhardt Jr.’s young prodigy, Connor Zilisch’s 2025 campaign. Driving the No. 88 for JR Motorsports, the young talent has been on fire, notching his ninth win last weekend at Gateway in the Nu Way 200. That’s seven victories in his last eight starts, putting him on the cusp of Kyle Busch’s single-season record of 13 from 2010, with seven races still to go. His dominance has him locked in as the regular-season champion, carrying a hefty points lead into the playoffs. But Zilisch’s Xfinity success is one thing; his jump to the full-time Cup Series in 2026 with Trackhouse Racing, alongside the likes of Shane van Gisbergen, brings a whole new challenge.
He’s dipped his toe in Cup waters already this year, making three starts, including an 11th-place finish at Atlanta. But the full-time shift from Xfinity cars to the Next Gen machine, plus the brutal ovals, could test him like never before. So, how will the NASCAR Cup Series potentially shock Connor Zilisch? Let’s hear from none other than his owner and onetime crew chief, Dale Earnhardt Jr.
Dale Jr.’s candid outlook on Zilisch’s rookie challenges
On the latest episode of the Dale Jr. Download podcast, Dale Earnhardt Jr. didn’t hold back when sizing up Connor Zilisch’s impending rookie year in the Cup Series. Chatting with hosts about Zilisch’s blistering Xfinity form, Junior delivered a grounded six-word verdict. “First year to sort of be rough.”
Dale Earnhardt Jr. pointed out that Trackhouse’s “hot and cold vibe” plays a role, saying, “They run the 600 fastest car there by far. And then disappear for a while.” This inconsistency, seen in their strong Coca-Cola 600 showing contrasted with quieter weeks elsewhere, could leave Zilisch mid-pack often as he adjusts. Drawing from Connor Zilisch‘s limited Cup exposure, like his DNF at COTA after tangling with teammate Daniel Suarez, Junior emphasized the patience needed, much like how Noah Gragson struggled post-Xfinity dominance, managing just three top-fives in two full Cup seasons despite 13 Xfinity wins.
The core of Junior’s caution lies in the massive gap between Xfinity and Cup machinery. “He’s learning an entirely new car, the short sidewall, the way this car feels, the way the car reacts and steps out, and all of those things will be very unique and different than what he’s experiencing in the Xfinity car,” Junior explained. Unlike the more forgiving Xfinity cars with taller sidewalls that allow aggressive cornering, the Next Gen Cup car demands precision amid dirty air and tighter margins for error; think how Zilisch might slap the wall on corner exit trailing traffic, a common rookie pitfall.
Junior compared it to Chase Briscoe’s journey at Stewart-Haas Racing, where it took a whole first season to build that “new notebook” on the car’s limits without wrecking out and winning his first race at Phoenix. But still, Briscoe, jumping teams in 2025, racked up DNFs early before clicking with top-10 runs; Zilisch, with zero oval experience at the Cup level beyond brief superspeedway tastes, could mirror that grind on tracks like Daytona and Atlanta.
Still, Junior sees bright spots, especially on road courses where Zilisch thrives. “Wouldn’t be surprised if Connor battles for a win in a road course. I think that’s not stepping out of bounds,” he noted, crediting Shane van Gisbergen‘s setup tweaks for the Next Gen car after his own year-one learning curve. SVG, who debuted in the Cup in 2023 and now understands what the car needs to be better, will hand Zilisch a dialed-in machine — potentially fast from the jump at tracks like Sonoma, where Zilisch has already won in Xfinity.
Yet Junior tempered optimism: “So, he’s got to build up this sort of data point or buildup… a new notebook internally about what the car’s capable of doing.” This echoes Briscoe’s story, where avoiding toe-link breaks and bad-air mishaps turned a rough start into consistency. For Zilisch, smart survival in an opener like Daytona could set a solid tone, but expect some 20th-place runs turning into unplanned pit stops.
As Dale Jr. unpacks these transitions, his insights extend beyond rookies to the veterans chasing glory in these playoffs.
Dale Jr. sees Denny Hamlin poised for Cup breakthrough
Dale Earnhardt Jr. turned his podcast lens to the playoffs, zeroing in on Denny Hamlin as the driver best equipped for that long-sought championship. At 44, Hamlin has grabbed three Daytona 500s and 59 Cup wins, but the title has slipped away in finals at Phoenix time and again, like his 2020 title run in Phoenix, where he failed to lead a single lap and finished fourth, or 2021’s late-race fade at Martinsville when he was spun out by Alex Bowman.
Junior praised Hamlin’s evolution, stating, “Every year we say, ‘Man, this is his best shot.’ What Denny’s been able to do over the last handful of seasons to be one of the favorites, one of the contenders year after year after year. And literally every single year it seems like he’s even better.”
This build-up culminated in Hamlin’s recent Gateway win, his fifth of 2025, clinching a Round of 12 spot despite Joe Gibbs Racing‘s crew shake-ups. Junior doubled down on Hamlin’s edge, saying, “It really does feel like he’s in the best position he’s ever been in… Right now, I think we can say, maybe for the first time, that he’s the best car in the field at this point.”
Unlike peers fading with age, Hamlin’s work ethic, honed under Joe Gibbs’ guidance, keeps him sharp against youngsters. With the No. 11 Camry humming, Junior views this as Hamlin’s window to finally hoist the trophy before Phoenix.
